24 Nov 2009: Average model rankings (NFL) for the 2009 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  1   1  6.0  4.0 New England               17  4   0  5.7  3.4 Houston                 
  2  3   1  5.3  4.0 Pittsburgh                18  2   0  5.6  3.5 Chicago                 
  3  6   1  5.7  3.9 Indianapolis              19  3   0  5.4  3.5 Miami                   
  4  2   1  5.0  4.1 Baltimore                 20  3   0  4.8  3.8 Washington              
  5  2   1  5.3  4.0 Tennessee                 21  4   0  5.4  3.5 Jacksonville            
  6  3   1  5.7  3.8 Philadelphia              22  3   0  4.9  3.7 Buffalo                 
  7  3   1  6.0  3.7 San Diego                 23  3   0  5.1  3.6 San Francisco           
  8  2   1  5.8  3.7 New York Giants           24  3   0  5.2  3.5 Kansas City             
  9  6   0  5.1  3.9 Cincinnati                25  6   0  5.4  3.4 Seattle                 
 10  3   0  5.2  3.8 Carolina                  26  3   0  4.6  3.7 Cleveland               
 11  2   0  6.0  3.4 Green Bay                 27  4   0  5.6  3.3 Atlanta                 
 12  3   0  5.7  3.6 Minnesota                 28  8   0  6.0  3.1 Arizona                 
 13  7   0  5.2  3.7 Tampa Bay                 29  2   0  5.1  3.4 Denver                  
 14  2   0  5.7  3.5 Dallas                    30  1   0  4.4  3.6 Oakland                 
 15  4   0  5.3  3.6 New York Jets             31  2   0  4.6  3.5 St. Louis               
 16  7   0  6.3  3.2 New Orleans               32  1  -1  5.4  2.8 Detroit                 

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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