2009 Week 5 (30 Sep - 3 Oct) Forecast for College Football Division IA & IAA

                                                                   ave score ROUNDED
rank projected winning team         rank projected losing team     TO NEAREST 3.5 POINTS
 --- ----------------------          --- ----------------------    ---------------------

90-100% chance of victory:

  20 Brigham Young             over  128 Utah State                 49.0 to 17.5
   3 Boise State               over  179 California - Davis         56.0 to  3.5
  22 Iowa                      over  119 Arkansas State             38.5 to  7.0
  94 Jacksonville State        over  202 Tennessee - Martin         42.0 to 10.5
  12 Cincinnati                over  183 Miami - Ohio               49.0 to 10.5
  38 Northern Iowa             over  239 Indiana State              52.5 to  0.0
   5 Oregon                    over   88 Washington State           45.5 to 10.5
  47 Tulsa                     over  180 Rice                       52.5 to 24.5
  25 Texas Christian           over  127 Southern Methodist         42.0 to 10.5
  34 Texas Tech                over  144 New Mexico                 38.5 to 10.5

80-90% chance of victory:

  54 Hawaii                    over  142 Louisiana Tech             38.5 to 24.5
  68 Southern Mississippi      over  166 Alabama - Birmingham       38.5 to 21.0
  17 West Virginia             over   83 Colorado                   38.5 to 17.5
  67 Baylor                    over  145 Kent State                 35.0 to 17.5
 117 Brown                     over  163 Rhode Island               38.5 to 24.5
  69 Central Michigan          over  158 Buffalo                    35.0 to 21.0
 160 San Diego                 over  242 Butler                     49.0 to 17.5
 161 Central Connecticut       over  236 Sacred Heart               42.0 to 14.0
  95 Central Florida           over  151 Memphis                    35.0 to 17.5
 229 Charleston Southern       over  245 Savannah State             42.0 to  7.0
 207 Drake                     over  243 Valparaiso                 42.0 to 17.5
   7 Virginia Tech             over  110 Duke                       42.0 to 10.5
  62 James Madison             over  154 Hofstra                    31.5 to 14.0
 118 Eastern Washington        over  210 Idaho State                42.0 to 21.0
   6 Ohio State                over   75 Indiana                    35.0 to 10.5
  74 Harvard                   over  162 Lehigh                     31.5 to 14.0
  18 Clemson                   over   85 Maryland                   35.0 to 17.5
 146 Dayton                    over  235 Morehead State             31.5 to 10.5
  97 North Dakota State        over  150 Illinois State             38.5 to 24.5
  84 Holy Cross                over  194 Northeastern               38.5 to 21.0
 121 Northeast Louisiana       over  185 Florida International      35.0 to 17.5
 125 San Diego State           over  192 New Mexico State           35.0 to 17.5
  41 South Carolina            over  147 South Carolina State       38.5 to  7.0
 157 Stony Brook               over  214 Presbyterian               38.5 to 17.5
  15 South Florida             over  104 Syracuse                   35.0 to 14.0
  36 Houston                   over  149 Texas - El Paso            42.0 to 21.0
  77 New Hampshire             over  188 Towson                     35.0 to 14.0
 112 Youngstown State          over  196 Missouri State             31.5 to 10.5

70-80% chance of victory:

 213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff     over  234 Alcorn State               24.5 to 14.0
  33 Arizona State             over   65 Oregon State               31.5 to 17.5
 198 Bucknell                  over  217 Georgetown                 24.5 to 17.5
  66 South Dakota State        over  138 California Poly            31.5 to 17.5
 120 Pennsylvania              over  171 Dartmouth                  28.0 to 17.5
 141 Eastern Illinois          over  168 Eastern Kentucky           21.0 to 14.0
 170 Fordham                   over  206 Old Dominion               38.5 to 24.5
  81 Delaware                  over  152 Maine                      28.0 to 21.0
   2 Oklahoma                  over   39 Miami - Florida            31.5 to 14.0
  58 North Carolina            over   87 Virginia                   28.0 to 14.0
 135 Northern Arizona          over  204 Northern Colorado          31.5 to 14.0
 178 Grambling                 over  215 Prairie View               28.0 to 17.5
 190 Portland State            over  212 Sacramento State           38.5 to 24.5
 155 Princeton                 over  186 Columbia                   24.5 to 14.0
  63 Purdue                    over   99 Northwestern               42.0 to 28.0
 159 Albany                    over  209 Saint Francis - Pennsylv   28.0 to 17.5
 187 Samford                   over  211 Western Carolina           28.0 to 14.0
 221 Tennessee State           over  231 Southeast Missouri State   24.5 to 17.5
  51 Villanova                 over   91 William & Mary             35.0 to 21.0
  32 Wake Forest               over   59 North Carolina State       28.0 to 17.5
  90 Southern Illinois         over  182 Western Illinois           31.5 to 17.5
  86 Yale                      over  108 Lafayette                  21.0 to 14.0

60-70% chance of victory:

  48 Pittsburgh                over   78 Louisville                 35.0 to 28.0
 156 Army                      over  169 Tulane                     28.0 to 17.5
  30 Boston College            over   26 Florida State              24.5 to 21.0
 100 Bowling Green             over  107 Ohio                       28.0 to 24.5
 199 Bryant                    over  200 Wagner                     35.0 to 31.5
 115 Colgate                   over  116 Cornell                    24.5 to 17.5
 208 Duquesne                  over  219 Robert Morris              17.5 to 10.5
 126 Temple                    over  164 Eastern Michigan           24.5 to 21.0
 122 Wyoming                   over  148 Florida Atlantic           28.0 to 24.5
 216 Howard                    over  224 Winston-Salem              24.5 to 17.5
  82 Colorado State            over  123 Idaho                      31.5 to 24.5
  42 Penn State                over   72 Illinois                   21.0 to 17.5
 227 Davidson                  over  240 Jacksonville               28.0 to 21.0
  14 Alabama                   over   50 Kentucky                   28.0 to 21.0
  76 East Carolina             over  106 Marshall                   28.0 to 24.5
  28 Michigan                  over   53 Michigan State             35.0 to 35.0
  31 Wisconsin                 over   73 Minnesota                  31.5 to 24.5
 114 Nevada - Reno             over  111 Nevada - Las Vegas         28.0 to 24.5
  70 Kansas State              over   92 Iowa State                 24.5 to 21.0
 176 South Dakota              over  201 North Dakota               35.0 to 31.5
 109 Northern Illinois         over  103 Western Michigan           24.5 to 21.0
  44 Notre Dame                over   56 Washington                 28.0 to 21.0
  35 Texas A&M                 over   55 Arkansas                   35.0 to 31.5
 153 Texas State - San Marcos  over  197 Southern Utah              42.0 to 38.5
 218 Tennessee Tech            over  228 Austin Peay                31.5 to 24.5
 134 Weber State               over  165 Montana State              28.0 to 21.0
 139 Wofford                   over  131 Georgia Southern           28.0 to 24.5

50-60% chance of victory:

 133 Ball State                over  113 Toledo                     35.0 to 35.0
 203 Morgan State              over  222 Bethune - Cookman          21.0 to 17.5
  11 Southern California       over   21 California                 21.0 to 21.0
 101 Furman                    over   93 Elon                       28.0 to 28.0
  10 Louisiana State           over   16 Georgia                    31.5 to 31.5
 205 Jackson State             over  195 Southern                   28.0 to 28.0
 220 Campbell                  over  233 Marist                     17.5 to 17.5
  29 Georgia Tech              over   60 Mississippi State          24.5 to 21.0
  57 Air Force                 over   61 Navy                       31.5 to 31.5
 232 North Carolina A&T        over  230 North Carolina Central     21.0 to 21.0
  24 California - Los Angeles  over   37 Stanford                   21.0 to 21.0
   9 Auburn                    over   23 Tennessee                  31.5 to 31.5
  98 The Citadel               over   89 Appalachian State          35.0 to 31.5
  79 Vanderbilt                over   71 Mississippi                17.5 to 14.0
 193 Virginia Military         over  191 Gardner - Webb             35.0 to 31.5

NOTE: the above scores are rounded to the nearest 3.5 points. Exact predicted scores are not released until after game time

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