29 Nov 2009: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2009 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3   9 25.6  7.5 Florida                  124 50   0 18.8  4.9 Kent State              
  2  4   9 26.7  6.3 Texas                    125 48   0 17.9  6.0 Pennsylvania            
  3  6   8 24.4  7.8 Alabama                  126 67   0 19.3  4.0 Washington State        
  4  5   8 25.2  6.5 Texas Christian          127 60   0 19.6  3.6 Stephen F. Austin       
  5 28   8 26.0  5.5 Oregon                   128 36   0 18.9  4.4 Ball State              
  6  5   7 23.9  7.7 Oklahoma                 129 14   0 19.3  3.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
  7 17   7 24.3  7.0 Virginia Tech            130 14   0 20.0  2.8 Northern Arizona        
  8  6   8 25.6  5.3 Boise State              131 43   0 19.4  3.7 Lafayette               
  9  6   7 23.6  7.4 Ohio State               132 36   0 18.0  5.3 Army                    
 10  6   7 25.4  5.2 Cincinnati               133 29   0 18.4  4.9 Maine                   
 11 47   6 23.3  7.1 Louisiana State          134 22   0 18.7  4.4 Harvard                 
 12  7   7 25.2  4.7 Arkansas                 135 14   0 18.5  4.7 Youngstown State        
 13 83   7 24.8  5.2 Georgia Tech             136 51   0 19.3  3.6 New Mexico              
 14  8   7 24.6  5.4 Texas Tech               137 27   0 20.0  2.7 North Dakota State      
 15  8   7 24.4  5.6 Miami - Florida          138 45   0 18.9  4.0 Akron                   
 16 47   6 23.5  6.6 Southern California      139 39   0 19.8  2.9 Holy Cross              
 17 51   6 23.6  6.3 Clemson                  140 13   0 18.5  4.5 Hofstra                 
 18  9   6 22.5  7.6 Nebraska                 141 27   0 19.6  2.9 Florida International   
 19  9   6 22.8  7.2 Penn State               142 13   0 19.8  2.6 McNeese State           
 20 30   6 24.6  4.8 Stanford                 143 32   0 17.8  4.9 Montana State           
 21 13   6 23.9  5.8 Oregon State             144 55   0 17.5  5.4 Samford                 
 22 32   6 23.6  5.9 California               145 44   0 18.4  4.1 Miami - Ohio            
 23 21   6 23.3  6.3 Oklahoma State           146 35   0 18.6  3.8 Illinois State          
 24 22   6 23.5  6.1 Pittsburgh               147 13   0 18.4  3.8 Georgia Southern        
 25 12   6 23.8  5.6 Tennessee                148 33  -1 18.4  3.8 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 26 45   6 24.1  5.1 Auburn                   149 13   0 17.6  4.8 Missouri State          
 27 22   6 23.9  5.4 Brigham Young            150 16  -1 19.8  2.0 North Texas             
 28 11   6 23.1  6.3 Mississippi              151 52  -1 18.0  4.2 San Jose State          
 29 45   6 23.6  5.7 Georgia                  152 27  -1 18.2  3.8 Brown                   
 30 30   6 23.7  5.6 Arizona                  153 49  -1 19.0  2.8 Colgate                 
 31 13   6 23.7  5.4 Missouri                 154 18  -1 18.6  3.3 California - Davis      
 32 47   5 23.0  6.1 West Virginia            155 71  -1 19.1  2.6 Texas State - San Marcos
 33 15   5 22.1  6.9 South Carolina           156 16  -1 18.0  4.0 Eastern Illinois        
 34 48   5 21.9  7.2 Iowa                     157 34  -1 19.4  2.1 Southern Utah           
 35 12   5 24.9  3.3 Houston                  158 47  -1 18.5  3.4 The Citadel             
 36 13   5 21.7  7.2 North Carolina           159 13  -1 18.9  2.5 Wofford                 
 37 37   5 22.6  6.0 Utah                     160 17  -1 18.0  3.6 California Poly         
 38 12   5 22.3  6.4 Air Force                161 42  -1 18.1  3.4 Tulane                  
 39 30   5 23.1  5.3 Kentucky                 162 19  -1 18.1  3.4 Albany                  
 40 12   5 22.2  6.4 Boston College           163 61  -1 19.0  2.1 South Dakota            
 41 12   5 21.9  6.8 California - Los Angeles 164 24  -1 17.7  3.8 Stony Brook             
 42 15   5 24.2  3.9 Nevada - Reno            165 87  -1 17.7  3.7 Prairie View            
 43 25   5 23.0  5.3 Wisconsin                166 43  -1 17.1  4.5 New Mexico State        
 44 41   5 22.9  5.4 Notre Dame               167 47  -1 16.9  4.7 Central Arkansas        
 45 58   5 23.6  4.4 Florida State            168 53  -1 17.9  3.4 North Dakota            
 46 24   5 23.3  4.7 Connecticut              169 39  -2 19.0  1.8 Rice                    
 47 48   4 23.2  4.6 Kansas                   170 12  -2 16.8  4.7 Yale                    
 48 66   4 22.4  5.6 Mississippi State        171 70  -2 18.2  2.6 Florida A&M             
 49 68   4 21.7  6.4 Arizona State            172 33  -2 18.9  1.6 Grambling               
 50 13   4 22.5  5.3 Navy                     173 83  -2 17.8  3.0 Norfolk State           
 51 42   4 23.7  3.8 Texas A&M                174 12  -2 17.0  4.0 Lehigh                  
 52 13   4 22.4  5.4 Central Michigan         175 37  -2 18.1  2.5 Eastern Michigan        
 53 46   4 21.7  6.2 South Florida            176 31  -2 17.0  3.8 Eastern Kentucky        
 54 16   4 22.9  4.7 Michigan State           177 88  -2 17.8  2.7 Central Connecticut     
 55 60   4 21.9  5.8 East Carolina            178 15  -2 17.3  3.4 Columbia                
 56 53   4 22.3  5.2 Washington               179 56  -2 18.0  2.4 Fordham                 
 57 38   4 22.1  5.5 Wake Forest              180 17  -2 17.9  2.4 Sacramento State        
 58 14   4 22.5  4.8 Fresno State             181 13  -2 18.5  1.6 Western Kentucky        
 59 29   4 22.0  5.5 Villanova                182 21  -2 17.3  3.0 Northeastern            
 60 43   4 21.6  5.9 Central Florida          183 13  -2 16.6  3.9 Western Carolina        
 61 14   4 21.4  6.0 Rutgers                  184 13  -2 16.5  4.0 Western Illinois        
 62 69   3 21.7  5.4 Minnesota                185 38  -2 16.2  4.4 Northern Colorado       
 63 25   3 21.8  5.1 Richmond                 186 28  -2 17.3  2.8 Tennessee Tech          
 64 90   3 21.2  5.9 Virginia                 187 26  -3 18.1  1.5 Rhode Island            
 65 63   3 21.5  5.5 Kansas State             188 12  -3 17.6  2.0 Southeast Louisiana     
 66 55   3 22.0  4.7 Purdue                   189 23  -3 17.8  1.6 Sam Houston State       
 67 20   3 22.2  4.3 Michigan                 190 86  -3 16.5  3.2 Dayton                  
 68 17   3 22.1  4.4 Southern Mississippi     191 73  -3 17.3  2.3 Charleston Southern     
 69 33   3 20.8  6.0 William & Mary           192 12  -3 16.5  3.2 Gardner - Webb          
 70 38   3 21.9  4.4 Southern Illinois        193 23  -3 16.4  3.4 Coastal Carolina        
 71 27   3 21.3  5.2 Northern Iowa            194 12  -3 16.5  2.9 Dartmouth               
 72 34   3 21.1  5.5 Illinois                 195 12  -3 17.2  1.8 Portland State          
 73 20   3 22.0  4.2 Troy State               196 92  -4 17.1  2.0 Old Dominion            
 74 22   3 21.5  4.7 Temple                   197 49  -4 17.4  1.5 Tennessee - Martin      
 75 70   3 20.7  5.7 Iowa State               198 11  -4 16.2  3.1 Delaware State          
 76 56   3 20.9  5.4 Baylor                   199 24  -4 16.5  2.6 Towson                  
 77 72   3 22.4  3.5 North Carolina State     200 62  -4 15.8  3.5 Hampton                 
 78 69   3 21.3  4.9 Colorado                 201 98  -4 17.0  1.8 Jacksonville            
 79 14   3 21.1  5.1 Middle Tennessee State   202 62  -4 16.4  2.5 Drake                   
 80 32   2 21.0  5.1 Louisiana Tech           203 19  -4 16.9  1.9 Virginia Military       
 81 20   2 21.6  4.3 Tulsa                    204 12  -4 16.2  2.8 Cornell                 
 82 55   2 21.1  5.0 Northwestern             205 49  -4 15.7  3.3 Monmouth                
 83 88   2 20.2  6.0 Vanderbilt               206 79  -4 16.6  2.1 Southern                
 84 75   2 21.5  4.3 Duke                     207 75  -4 16.1  2.8 Alabama A&M             
 85 13   2 21.3  4.5 Bowling Green            208 13  -4 15.6  3.4 Princeton               
 86 31   2 20.6  5.3 Louisville               209 17  -4 15.9  2.9 Southeast Missouri State
 87 21   2 20.8  5.0 Ohio                     210 37  -4 15.1  4.0 Robert Morris           
 88 13   2 20.9  4.8 Northern Illinois        211 40  -4 16.4  2.3 Austin Peay             
 89 32   2 21.8  3.6 Appalachian State        212 12  -4 15.3  3.5 Morgan State            
 90 16   2 20.2  5.6 Elon                     213 59  -4 14.9  4.1 Bryant                  
 91 72   2 20.9  4.7 Syracuse                 214 13  -4 16.3  2.2 Idaho State             
 92 51   2 21.4  3.9 New Hampshire            215 13  -4 16.7  1.5 Nicholls State          
 93 77   2 21.0  4.3 Maryland                 216 23  -4 16.2  2.1 Texas Southern          
 94 13   2 21.1  4.0 Southern Methodist       217 15  -4 15.2  3.4 Bucknell                
 95 24   2 20.2  5.1 South Dakota State       218 46  -4 14.6  4.2 Tennessee State         
 96 13   2 21.0  4.1 Nevada - Las Vegas       219 32  -5 16.9  1.0 Wagner                  
 97 36   1 20.0  5.2 Marshall                 220 51  -4 14.5  3.9 Jackson State           
 98 45   1 21.3  3.5 Montana                  221 38  -5 15.7  2.2 San Diego               
 99 64   1 19.8  5.4 Wyoming                  222 24  -5 14.8  3.1 North Carolina A&T      
100 13   1 20.6  4.3 Hawaii                   223 41  -5 15.1  2.7 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
101 19   1 21.8  2.8 Idaho                    224 **  -5 14.8  3.1 Bethune - Cookman       
102 13   1 20.3  4.6 Buffalo                  225 14  -5 15.8  1.7 Alcorn State            
103 69   1 21.2  3.5 Indiana                  226 50  -5 14.8  3.1 Marist                  
104 28   1 20.4  4.3 Colorado State           227 38  -5 15.5  1.8 North Carolina Central  
105 13   1 21.2  3.3 Utah State               228 11  -5 15.2  2.2 Northwestern State      
106 30   1 19.5  5.5 James Madison            229 11  -5 15.2  2.1 Indiana State           
107 36   1 20.0  4.7 Northeast Louisiana      230 13  -6 15.9  0.9 Presbyterian            
108 14   1 20.1  4.5 Massachusetts            231 10  -5 14.0  3.4 Winston-Salem           
109 14   1 20.6  3.8 Alabama - Birmingham     232 44  -5 14.2  3.0 Davidson                
110 42   1 20.4  4.0 Delaware                 233 23  -6 15.0  1.9 Murray State            
111 51   1 20.6  3.7 San Diego State          234 15  -6 14.5  2.4 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
112 62   1 20.0  4.4 Jacksonville State       235 61  -6 14.4  2.6 Butler                  
113 30   1 20.8  3.2 Texas - El Paso          236 18  -6 14.7  2.1 Duquesne                
114 47   1 20.6  3.4 Liberty                  237  9  -6 13.9  2.9 Georgetown              
115 53   0 19.7  4.4 Western Michigan         238 79  -5 13.4  3.6 Alabama State           
116 20   0 19.4  4.7 Arkansas State           239 74  -6 15.1  1.1 Sacred Heart            
117 44   0 19.7  4.0 South Carolina State     240 12  -6 14.1  2.1 Howard                  
118 51   0 20.4  3.1 Eastern Washington       241 38  -7 12.8  2.6 Morehead State          
119 22   0 21.1  2.2 Toledo                   242 44  -7 13.3  1.8 Campbell                
120 63   0 20.8  2.4 Florida Atlantic         243  7  -7 12.7  2.0 Mississippi Valley State
121 24   0 19.5  4.1 Weber State              244  6  -9 12.8  0.2 Savannah State          
122 41   0 19.8  3.7 Memphis                  245 12  -9 11.7  0.6 Valparaiso              
123 53   0 20.6  2.6 Furman                  

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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