29 Nov 2009: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2009 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3   9 25.6  7.5 Florida                  124 52   0 18.8  4.9 Kent State              
  2  4   9 26.7  6.3 Texas                    125 38   0 17.9  6.0 Pennsylvania            
  3  5   8 24.4  7.8 Alabama                  126 64   0 19.3  4.0 Washington State        
  4  4   8 25.2  6.5 Texas Christian          127 64   0 19.6  3.6 Stephen F. Austin       
  5 30   8 26.0  5.5 Oregon                   128 14   0 18.9  4.4 Ball State              
  6  5   7 23.9  7.7 Oklahoma                 129 29   0 19.3  3.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
  7 36   7 24.3  7.0 Virginia Tech            130 14   0 20.0  2.8 Northern Arizona        
  8  6   8 25.6  5.3 Boise State              131 51   0 19.4  3.7 Lafayette               
  9  6   7 23.6  7.4 Ohio State               132 46   0 18.0  5.3 Army                    
 10  7   7 25.4  5.2 Cincinnati               133 14   0 18.4  4.9 Maine                   
 11 36   6 23.3  7.1 Louisiana State          134 14   0 18.7  4.4 Harvard                 
 12  7   7 25.2  4.7 Arkansas                 135 14   0 18.5  4.7 Youngstown State        
 13 53   7 24.8  5.2 Georgia Tech             136 55   0 19.3  3.6 New Mexico              
 14  8   7 24.6  5.4 Texas Tech               137 29   0 20.0  2.7 North Dakota State      
 15  8   7 24.4  5.6 Miami - Florida          138 48   0 18.9  4.0 Akron                   
 16 30   6 23.5  6.6 Southern California      139 48   0 19.8  2.9 Holy Cross              
 17 36   6 23.6  6.3 Clemson                  140 14   0 18.5  4.5 Hofstra                 
 18  9   6 22.5  7.6 Nebraska                 141 23   0 19.6  2.9 Florida International   
 19  9   6 22.8  7.2 Penn State               142 28   0 19.8  2.6 McNeese State           
 20 46   6 24.6  4.8 Stanford                 143 32   0 17.8  4.9 Montana State           
 21 29   6 23.9  5.8 Oregon State             144 64   0 17.5  5.4 Samford                 
 22 15   6 23.6  5.9 California               145 51   0 18.4  4.1 Miami - Ohio            
 23 13   6 23.3  6.3 Oklahoma State           146 28   0 18.6  3.8 Illinois State          
 24 20   6 23.5  6.1 Pittsburgh               147 32   0 18.4  3.8 Georgia Southern        
 25 10   6 23.8  5.6 Tennessee                148 18  -1 18.4  3.8 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 26 35   6 24.1  5.1 Auburn                   149 21   0 17.6  4.8 Missouri State          
 27 30   6 23.9  5.4 Brigham Young            150 13  -1 19.8  2.0 North Texas             
 28 11   6 23.1  6.3 Mississippi              151 52  -1 18.0  4.2 San Jose State          
 29 77   6 23.6  5.7 Georgia                  152 22  -1 18.2  3.8 Brown                   
 30 37   6 23.7  5.6 Arizona                  153 57  -1 19.0  2.8 Colgate                 
 31 12   6 23.7  5.4 Missouri                 154 20  -1 18.6  3.3 California - Davis      
 32 49   5 23.0  6.1 West Virginia            155 63  -1 19.1  2.6 Texas State - San Marcos
 33 20   5 22.1  6.9 South Carolina           156 30  -1 18.0  4.0 Eastern Illinois        
 34 33   5 21.9  7.2 Iowa                     157 35  -1 19.4  2.1 Southern Utah           
 35 11   5 24.9  3.3 Houston                  158 62  -1 18.5  3.4 The Citadel             
 36 23   5 21.7  7.2 North Carolina           159 14  -1 18.9  2.5 Wofford                 
 37 23   5 22.6  6.0 Utah                     160 15  -1 18.0  3.6 California Poly         
 38 12   5 22.3  6.4 Air Force                161 45  -1 18.1  3.4 Tulane                  
 39 21   5 23.1  5.3 Kentucky                 162 16  -1 18.1  3.4 Albany                  
 40 12   5 22.2  6.4 Boston College           163 51  -1 19.0  2.1 South Dakota            
 41 28   5 21.9  6.8 California - Los Angeles 164 26  -1 17.7  3.8 Stony Brook             
 42 12   5 24.2  3.9 Nevada - Reno            165 87  -1 17.7  3.7 Prairie View            
 43 32   5 23.0  5.3 Wisconsin                166 40  -1 17.1  4.5 New Mexico State        
 44 29   5 22.9  5.4 Notre Dame               167 75  -1 16.9  4.7 Central Arkansas        
 45 37   5 23.6  4.4 Florida State            168 32  -1 17.9  3.4 North Dakota            
 46 35   5 23.3  4.7 Connecticut              169 42  -2 19.0  1.8 Rice                    
 47 35   4 23.2  4.6 Kansas                   170 13  -2 16.8  4.7 Yale                    
 48 55   4 22.4  5.6 Mississippi State        171 62  -2 18.2  2.6 Florida A&M             
 49 54   4 21.7  6.4 Arizona State            172 23  -2 18.9  1.6 Grambling               
 50 12   4 22.5  5.3 Navy                     173 83  -2 17.8  3.0 Norfolk State           
 51 27   4 23.7  3.8 Texas A&M                174 13  -2 17.0  4.0 Lehigh                  
 52 12   4 22.4  5.4 Central Michigan         175 37  -2 18.1  2.5 Eastern Michigan        
 53 12   4 21.7  6.2 South Florida            176 25  -2 17.0  3.8 Eastern Kentucky        
 54 12   4 22.9  4.7 Michigan State           177 85  -2 17.8  2.7 Central Connecticut     
 55 49   4 21.9  5.8 East Carolina            178 22  -2 17.3  3.4 Columbia                
 56 62   4 22.3  5.2 Washington               179 55  -2 18.0  2.4 Fordham                 
 57 53   4 22.1  5.5 Wake Forest              180 13  -2 17.9  2.4 Sacramento State        
 58 12   4 22.5  4.8 Fresno State             181 17  -2 18.5  1.6 Western Kentucky        
 59 28   4 22.0  5.5 Villanova                182 24  -2 17.3  3.0 Northeastern            
 60 38   4 21.6  5.9 Central Florida          183 14  -2 16.6  3.9 Western Carolina        
 61 17   4 21.4  6.0 Rutgers                  184 13  -2 16.5  4.0 Western Illinois        
 62 77   3 21.7  5.4 Minnesota                185 33  -2 16.2  4.4 Northern Colorado       
 63 23   3 21.8  5.1 Richmond                 186 26  -2 17.3  2.8 Tennessee Tech          
 64 75   3 21.2  5.9 Virginia                 187 21  -3 18.1  1.5 Rhode Island            
 65 61   3 21.5  5.5 Kansas State             188 12  -3 17.6  2.0 Southeast Louisiana     
 66 51   3 22.0  4.7 Purdue                   189 22  -3 17.8  1.6 Sam Houston State       
 67 13   3 22.2  4.3 Michigan                 190 76  -3 16.5  3.2 Dayton                  
 68 13   3 22.1  4.4 Southern Mississippi     191 45  -3 17.3  2.3 Charleston Southern     
 69 35   3 20.8  6.0 William & Mary           192 12  -3 16.5  3.2 Gardner - Webb          
 70 37   3 21.9  4.4 Southern Illinois        193 14  -3 16.4  3.4 Coastal Carolina        
 71 30   3 21.3  5.2 Northern Iowa            194 12  -3 16.5  2.9 Dartmouth               
 72 47   3 21.1  5.5 Illinois                 195 12  -3 17.2  1.8 Portland State          
 73 13   3 22.0  4.2 Troy State               196 92  -4 17.1  2.0 Old Dominion            
 74 27   3 21.5  4.7 Temple                   197 35  -4 17.4  1.5 Tennessee - Martin      
 75 61   3 20.7  5.7 Iowa State               198 16  -4 16.2  3.1 Delaware State          
 76 51   3 20.9  5.4 Baylor                   199 24  -4 16.5  2.6 Towson                  
 77 42   3 22.4  3.5 North Carolina State     200 66  -4 15.8  3.5 Hampton                 
 78 71   3 21.3  4.9 Colorado                 201 90  -4 17.0  1.8 Jacksonville            
 79 47   3 21.1  5.1 Middle Tennessee State   202 42  -4 16.4  2.5 Drake                   
 80 26   2 21.0  5.1 Louisiana Tech           203 17  -4 16.9  1.9 Virginia Military       
 81 26   2 21.6  4.3 Tulsa                    204 12  -4 16.2  2.8 Cornell                 
 82 55   2 21.1  5.0 Northwestern             205 58  -4 15.7  3.3 Monmouth                
 83 82   2 20.2  6.0 Vanderbilt               206 89  -4 16.6  2.1 Southern                
 84 70   2 21.5  4.3 Duke                     207 72  -4 16.1  2.8 Alabama A&M             
 85 13   2 21.3  4.5 Bowling Green            208 12  -4 15.6  3.4 Princeton               
 86 39   2 20.6  5.3 Louisville               209 24  -4 15.9  2.9 Southeast Missouri State
 87 13   2 20.8  5.0 Ohio                     210 29  -4 15.1  4.0 Robert Morris           
 88 13   2 20.9  4.8 Northern Illinois        211 37  -4 16.4  2.3 Austin Peay             
 89 39   2 21.8  3.6 Appalachian State        212 12  -4 15.3  3.5 Morgan State            
 90 32   2 20.2  5.6 Elon                     213 45  -4 14.9  4.1 Bryant                  
 91 65   2 20.9  4.7 Syracuse                 214 12  -4 16.3  2.2 Idaho State             
 92 46   2 21.4  3.9 New Hampshire            215 13  -4 16.7  1.5 Nicholls State          
 93 81   2 21.0  4.3 Maryland                 216 13  -4 16.2  2.1 Texas Southern          
 94 14   2 21.1  4.0 Southern Methodist       217 12  -4 15.2  3.4 Bucknell                
 95 19   2 20.2  5.1 South Dakota State       218 40  -4 14.6  4.2 Tennessee State         
 96 28   2 21.0  4.1 Nevada - Las Vegas       219 31  -5 16.9  1.0 Wagner                  
 97 45   1 20.0  5.2 Marshall                 220 38  -4 14.5  3.9 Jackson State           
 98 42   1 21.3  3.5 Montana                  221 30  -5 15.7  2.2 San Diego               
 99 69   1 19.8  5.4 Wyoming                  222 27  -5 14.8  3.1 North Carolina A&T      
100 13   1 20.6  4.3 Hawaii                   223 53  -5 15.1  2.7 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
101 17   1 21.8  2.8 Idaho                    224 **  -5 14.8  3.1 Bethune - Cookman       
102 13   1 20.3  4.6 Buffalo                  225 17  -5 15.8  1.7 Alcorn State            
103 73   1 21.2  3.5 Indiana                  226 69  -5 14.8  3.1 Marist                  
104 13   1 20.4  4.3 Colorado State           227 21  -5 15.5  1.8 North Carolina Central  
105 18   1 21.2  3.3 Utah State               228 11  -5 15.2  2.2 Northwestern State      
106 26   1 19.5  5.5 James Madison            229 11  -5 15.2  2.1 Indiana State           
107 18   1 20.0  4.7 Northeast Louisiana      230 11  -6 15.9  0.9 Presbyterian            
108 14   1 20.1  4.5 Massachusetts            231 11  -5 14.0  3.4 Winston-Salem           
109 24   1 20.6  3.8 Alabama - Birmingham     232 25  -5 14.2  3.0 Davidson                
110 38   1 20.4  4.0 Delaware                 233 10  -6 15.0  1.9 Murray State            
111 38   1 20.6  3.7 San Diego State          234 29  -6 14.5  2.4 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
112 62   1 20.0  4.4 Jacksonville State       235 73  -6 14.4  2.6 Butler                  
113 28   1 20.8  3.2 Texas - El Paso          236 30  -6 14.7  2.1 Duquesne                
114 42   1 20.6  3.4 Liberty                  237  9  -6 13.9  2.9 Georgetown              
115 42   0 19.7  4.4 Western Michigan         238 90  -5 13.4  3.6 Alabama State           
116 13   0 19.4  4.7 Arkansas State           239 46  -6 15.1  1.1 Sacred Heart            
117 37   0 19.7  4.0 South Carolina State     240 13  -6 14.1  2.1 Howard                  
118 43   0 20.4  3.1 Eastern Washington       241 27  -7 12.8  2.6 Morehead State          
119 13   0 21.1  2.2 Toledo                   242 60  -7 13.3  1.8 Campbell                
120 62   0 20.8  2.4 Florida Atlantic         243  7  -7 12.7  2.0 Mississippi Valley State
121 26   0 19.5  4.1 Weber State              244  8  -9 12.8  0.2 Savannah State          
122 36   0 19.8  3.7 Memphis                  245 15  -9 11.7  0.6 Valparaiso              
123 46   0 20.6  2.6 Furman                  

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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